POLIS (Centre for Social Policy Research)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/1885/733724765

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Steady, but not recovering: Wellbeing, Democratic Attitudes, and Interpersonal Trust in Australia, June 2026
(The Australian National University, 2026-07-27) Nicholas Biddle; Matthew Gray
This paper reports findings from the June 2026 wave of the ANUpoll, conducted with 3,543 adult Australians between 18 June and 6 July 2026, and draws on 29 prior waves stretching back to October 2019. It is the second wave of a new longitudinal cohort, with 1,851 respondents also having completed the March 2026 survey. Analysis finds that wellbeing is steady, but at a low base, and that stability is not the same as recovery. Life satisfaction remained flat between March and June 2026, at 6.22 out of 10 in both waves. Financial stress was similarly stable (33.0 per cent finding it difficult or very difficult in June, compared to 34.9 per cent in March), and satisfaction with the direction of the country ticked up slightly, from 46.0 to 46.6 per cent, though not significantly so. March and June 2026 remain the only two quarters since January 2020 in which more Australians were dissatisfied than satisfied with the direction of the country. As in previous ANUpolls, age, education and employment are the strongest predictors of wellbeing, with older Australians, degree holders and the employed reporting more positive outcomes across measures. Satisfaction with democracy fell over the quarter, but principled support for democracy held. Satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia fell significantly, from 65.7 to 62.8 per cent, the lowest reading since the question began to be asked regularly in January 2023, driven by a rise in the proportion dissatisfied rather than very dissatisfied. Drawing on the longitudinal sample, the decline was smaller for younger Australians and degree holders, both groups whose satisfaction was already higher in March, meaning pre-existing gaps are widening rather than narrowing. Principled support for democracy, by contrast, held steady and has increased significantly over the past year, from 66.9 per cent in May 2025 to 72.0 per cent in June 2026. Agreement with core democratic norms, such as that no one should be above the law, remains very high and largely unchanged since March. Across sixteen democracy-related statements, the one significant movement was a rise in support for the right to join peaceful protests, from 72.6 to 77.0 per cent. Australians are becoming more critical of how democracy is being delivered without withdrawing their commitment to democracy itself. The most worrying finding from the paper was that interpersonal trust has fallen to 5.32 on a scale of 0 to 10, the lowest value recorded in ANUpoll during the 2020s. This sits below the pre-COVID value of 5.53 recorded in October 2019 and reverses the increase in trust observed during the pandemic. All three underlying measures declined, with the sharpest fall in the proportion saying that most people can be trusted. As with other measures, trust is higher among older Australians, degree holders and the employed. Bringing these measures together, satisfaction with democracy is far more closely associated with how Australians view their country and each other than with their own material circumstances. There is a 45.1 percentage point gap in satisfaction with democracy between those satisfied with the direction of the country and those who are not, and a 43.4 percentage point gap between those with low and high levels of interpersonal trust. Both are substantially larger than the differences associated with a person's own economic position, which suggests that responses framed solely around household economic conditions may not be sufficient to shift democratic sentiment.
Access status: Open Access ,
Public Attitudes to Child Support in Australia: A contemporary snapshot
(The Australian National University, 2026-06-26) Smyth, Bruce; Hahn, Markus; Gray, Matthew
This study seeks to obtain a contemporary snapshot of public attitudes to child support. Samples from the general population of Australian adults (including independent samples of separated mothers and fathers with a child support case) were drawn from two online panels: the Life in AustraliaTM (LinA) panel, and the Online Research Unit (ORU) panel. Data were collected over a two-week period in 2024. Key findings included the following: (a) separated fathers generally felt the system was unfair to paying parents, while many separated mothers believed it was unfair to both parents; (b) most respondents believed child support should be paid even if the paying parent has little contact with the child, is on a low income, only receives government assistance and/or has never lived with the other parent; (c) there was solid support across all groups for the use of penalties for non-compliance, and for the idea that child support should increase if there are more than three children; (d) majority care mothers strongly supported financial help for young adult children if young adults were unemployed, had a disability, or were studying full-time; (e) medical, dental, and school books were the most likely items to be seen as intended to be covered by child support, apart from the obvious necessities of food, housing and children’s clothes; (f) parents should be required to apply for child support to receive government benefits (such as Family Tax Benefit), especially if parents had never lived together; and (g) Services Australia should check on compliance in Private Collect. Although many of the issues raised by participants have dogged the system since it first began, the issues of privacy, family violence, and shared costs in the context of shared care, represented newer concerns.
Access status: Open Access ,
The costs of children in Australia estimated using financial stress
(The Australian National University, 2026-06-25) Phillips, Ben; Jahromi, Maria; Bradbury, Bruce; Webster, Richard; Gray, Matthew
Estimates of the costs of children are used in a wide range of economic and social policies. One important use is in the design of child support schemes and in setting the amount of child support payments that separated parents are required to pay or entitled to receive. This paper provides new Australian estimates of the costs of children using a financial stress approach (a variant of the equivalent living standards approach) using data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey.
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Both-Ways Music and Dance Program – Progress Evaluation Report
(The Australian National University, 2026-06-03) Blakeman, Bree; Tait, Lillian; Fogarty, William; Murray, Minda
This report presents a formative evaluation of the Both-Ways Music and Dance (BWM&D) Program established in Yirrkala. The program officially commenced in March 2025 and is evaluated in this report until March 2026. The evaluation framework was designed and developed as part of this process. This evaluation was commissioned by Rirratjingu Aboriginal Corporation (RAC). Any factual errors are the responsibility of the authors. Acknowledgments The evaluation team extends its sincere appreciation to the Both Ways Music and Dance (BWM&D) Steering Committee for their hospitality and guidance, which made this evaluation possible. We also thank Rirratjingu Aboriginal Corporation (RAC) for commissioning this evaluation, and the National Indigenous Australians Agency (NIAA) for funding the BWM&D Program. Our gratitude is further extended to the staff of Yirrkala Bilingual School for their time, support, and the sharing of valuable resources. Special thanks to the BWM&D Delivery team. In particular, we thank Adrian (Adi) Schmidt Mumm and the team at Aboriginal Resource and Development Service (ARDS)/Yolŋu Radio, Peter Reeves, Peter Britto, Francis Diatschenko, and Molly Franzke for ensuring the evaluation was given the best information possible. We also recognise and commend the important work each of them contributes to the program. Finally, we would like to thank all the interviewees for generously sharing their time and experiences with us. We acknowledge this research took place on the unceded land of the Rirratjingu clan and thank Rirratjingu Elders for welcoming us onto your Country. This report was written on the unceded lands of the Ngunnawal and Ngambri people.
Access status: Open Access ,
Racism & Racial Discrimination in Australian Universities: Report on the Racism@Uni Survey
(The Australian National University, 2026-02-17) Bray, Rob; Gray, Matthew; Howard-Wagner, Deirdre; Baffour, Bernard; Markham, Francis; Doery, Kate; Shiosaki, Elfie; Chapman, Perri; Bartels, Lorana; Biddle, Nicholas
Access status: Open Access ,
Racism & Racial Discrimination in Australian Universities: Report on the Racism@Uni Survey. Part B: Thematic Analysis of Qualitative Responses to Question F12
(The Australian National University, 2026-02-17) Howard-Wagner, Deirdre; Curchin, Katherine
Access status: Open Access ,
Political and policy attitudes in an age of pessimism, March 2026
(The Austrlian National University, 2026-05-04) Biddle, Nicholas; Gray, Matthew
This paper reports on political and policy attitudes collected in the March 2026 ANUpoll, a survey of 3,662 adult Australians conducted between 11 and 26 March 2026. The survey was conducted against a backdrop of acute economic anxiety and historically low life satisfaction documented in a companion paper (Biddle and Gray 2026), and during a period of significant movement in published polling on voting intentions. Australians in March 2026 retain broadly expansive views on the role of government, with majority support for government responsibility across all thirteen domains examined. However, the average value of the belief-in-government index declined between December 2025 and March 2026, consistent with falling institutional confidence over this period. Fiscal attitudes reflect a well-documented paradox: support for spending to stimulate the economy has declined, concern about public debt has reached a series high, and more Australians than at any previous ANUpoll wave describe their income taxes as too high, yet majorities simultaneously favour increased government spending across most budget areas. Environmental attitudes show a modest shift under conditions of economic strain. The proportion of Australians believing the country does too little for the environment has declined from pandemic-era levels, though it remains the most common view. Nearly three in ten Australians rate global warming as not serious or not very serious, a higher scepticism rate than for any other environmental issue asked about. The political analysis draws on voting intention data, party ratings, and three statistical models to examine the attitudinal and policy foundations of support for five political parties: the Liberals, Labor, Nationals, Greens, and One Nation. While demographic characteristics explain some of the variation in party ratings, attitudinal indices—covering financial stress, hope, belief in government, environmental concern, institutional confidence, and populist orientation—add considerably greater explanatory power. Confidence in institutions is positively associated with favourable ratings for the Liberal, Labor, National and Greens parties but has no significant association with the ratings of One Nation. The strongest attitudinal predictor of a favourable One Nation rating is populist orientation, with policy preference for stricter border control and less strict environmental laws emerging as the policy items most distinctively associated with One Nation support. Taken together, these findings suggest that the current rise in One Nation support reflects an internally coherent attitudinal configuration rather than a simple protest response to economic conditions, though financial stress remains an important contributing factor.
Access status: Open Access ,
Holding together, Just: Wellbeing, Economic Strain, and Democratic Resilience in Australia, March 2026
(The Australian National University, 2026-04-19) Biddle, Nicholas; Gray, Matthew
This paper reports findings from the March 2026 wave of the ANUpoll, conducted with 3,662 adult Australians between 11 and 26 March 2026, and draws on 28 prior waves stretching back to October 2019. Average life satisfaction has fallen to 6.22 out of 10, the lowest recorded in the series and below levels reached during COVID-19 lockdowns. For the first time, more Australians are dissatisfied with the direction of the country than satisfied, and nearly three-in-five believe life was better fifty years ago. Financial stress is at a record high, and employed Australians' expected probability of job loss has reached 26.8 per cent, statistically indistinguishable from pandemic-era levels, despite an unemployment rate of only 4.3 per cent. Fear of automation has nearly doubled since 2018 and is now a primary driver of employment anxiety. Against this backdrop, satisfaction with democracy has remained broadly stable and principled support for democratic norms is strong. Education emerges as the single most consistent predictor of positive outcomes across the paper. The paper concludes that Australia is not at the point of democratic unravelling, but the economic, security, and institutional pressures documented here establish a long-term time series against which future surveys will need to be read carefully.
Access status: Open Access ,
“Like Oil and Water” - Exploring Distance Education for First Nations Students
(The Australian National University, 2026-04-09) Fogarty, William; Holmes, Catherine; Tait, Lillian; Eva, Christian
Access status: Open Access ,
Increasing the adequacy of JobSeeker and related welfare payments: Modelling Policy Options
(The Australian National University, 2026-03-24) Phillips, Ben
The Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee recommends increasing the JobSeeker Payment for working age Australians from 67 to 90 per cent of the Age Pension. EIAC is concerned that the existing rate does not provide many recipients with an adequate safety net leaving many people with insufficient funds to meet their basic living expenses. This research models a number of policy options that increase the rate of JobSeeker and related payments. The modelling includes the full 90 per cent EIAC recommendation but also lower cost options including staging the required increases over a 4-year period and immediately increasing the rate for recipients who have a partial capacity to work. All options lead to substantial reductions in poverty for recipients and provide meaningful financial gains for groups in society that are known to be disadvantaged such as single parents, low income renters, and indigenous Australians.
Access status: Open Access ,
Questions of trust: Are we looking at the problem the right way?
(The Australian National University, 2025-12-11) Masters, Adam; Perry, Ryan
For a number of years now, public administration scholars and practitioners have been concerned with the declining trust in public institutions. Putnam (2000) mapped the decline in trust in America in his seminal work Bowling Alone. This was one of many problems, but this concern about declining trust has not abated – survey after survey pose questions to the public about their trust in various institutions. The context can often be telling, with some institutions well trusted in one setting, yet highly mistrusted in another setting. Both theoretical and empirical efforts have been turned to toward the problem of declining trust. But what if we are overlooking a crucial component of trust? This is the puzzle. Public policy, such as the Robodebt debacle, is often built on a lack of government trust – the government and public sector agencies fundamentally did not trust welfare recipients. Three decades earlier, the Australian Taxation Office abandoned much of its non-trusting approach to enable taxpayers to self-assess their tax returns – an act of trust in the public that paid dividends in the long run. These diametrically opposed cases show that we simply do not know enough about the governments trust in people. So why are we only ever asking the public as to whether they trust institutions? Why not ask them how much do they think the government trusts them? And why are we not surveying government and the public sector about their trust in citizens or clients? This paper reviews the literature on the trust relationship between governments and people before illustrating the limitations of current survey data. The paper will then turn to mounting an argument for a fresh research agenda backed by some case studies which illustrate the difference that can be made by a public institution, organisation or agency projecting trust, and being trusted in return. In essence, governments need new measures of trust.
Access status: Open Access ,
“Let it not be a fight of the minority” Priorities of young multicultural Victorians to reduce the harms of racism and its impact on their lives
(The Australian National University, 2025-12-01) Doery, Kate; Lee, Alexandra; Ravalji, Krushnadevsinh; Nguyen, Phuong; Olsen, Anna; Stonnill, Meg; Priest, Naomi
This report amplifies the voices and priorities of multicultural young people with respect to racism and its impacts. Drawing on qualitative focus group data collected in Victoria, Australia in 2021, the report documents both the contemporary manifestations of racism as experienced by young people of migrant backgrounds and their perspectives on pathways toward meaningful change. Participants' priorities reflect a dual imperative: first, the need for whole-of-society approaches that recognise and dismantle racism as a fundamentally systemic phenomenon; and second, the urgent need to address the immediate harms of racism in the everyday lives of racialised young people — including social isolation, subtle othering, hypervigilance, and experiences of unsafety and unbelonging. Critically, participants emphasised that support for those experiencing racism must not be deferred pending long-term structural transformation; the needs of racialised young people require immediate action. The report's recommendations call upon those in positions of power and privilege to meaningfully engage with — and act upon — the knowledge and priorities of young people who experience racism. Specific recommendations include dedicated education on racism and its harms, resourcing of community-led safe spaces, and reform of institutional policies and reporting mechanisms to centre the needs of those targeted by racism and to strengthen institutional accountability. The report is explicitly not oriented toward the prosecution of individual perpetrators, but toward systemic and institutional change. Situated within a broader scholarly and policy discourse, these findings challenge the enduring expectation that racialised communities bear the primary burden of anti-racism labour. In alignment with emerging literature (Fleming et al., 2023; Peucker, Vaughan, et al., 2025a), anti-racism efforts should be reoriented— from calling on marginalised populations to speak out, toward calling on those with structural privilege and institutional power to listen, act, and assume meaningful responsibility for anti-racist change.
Access status: Open Access ,
Applying to University through the Early Offer Scheme: Insights from the GENERATION study
(2025-10-28) Arnup, Jessica; Doery, Kate; Riquelme-Gonzalez, Pedro; Edwards, Ben
Many Australian universities offer secondary school students a place in a higher education course before they have completed their senior secondary studies. This Early Offers Scheme enables eligible Year 12 students to receive conditional acceptance into an undergraduate course from September, before completing their final Year 12 exams. This report presents quantitative and qualitative findings from Year 12 students in 2024, using data from the GENERATION Study, a longitudinal survey of the education and aspirations of young people in Australia. Almost half (46 per cent) of Year 12 students planned to or had already applied for an early offer place when surveyed in May-July of 2024. Early offer applications were most common amongst students from New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. Additionally, females, students from Independent schools, and students from non-English-speaking backgrounds had higher rates of planning to apply for an early offer. Qualitative findings suggest that common reasons for applying for an early offer include securing an early place at university, relieving the stress and pressure of Year 12, or having a fall-back option.
Access status: Open Access ,
A Strategic Community Roadmap for an Australian FAIR Vocabulary Ecosystem
(Canberra, ACT: Australian National University, POLIS Centre for Indigenous Policy Research, 2025-09-05) Wong, Megan; Atkins, Natalia ; Boyle, Douglas; Dharmawardena, Kheeran; Hobern, Donald ; McEachern, Steve ; Wyborn, Lesley
Vocabularies serve as essential anchor points for both humans and machines in effective and efficient data processing. Vocabularies include controlled vocabularies, taxonomies, thesauri, ontologies, and metadata schemas, each of which contributes to an ecosystem that encompasses the people, resources, standards, tools, platforms, policies, and practices that make them accessible and useful for researchers. Currently, Australia’s vocabulary ecosystem is fragmented and lacks effective coordination. To address these challenges, a Vocabulary Workshop was held in 2022, sponsored by the Australian Data Archive, the Australian Research Data Commons, and CODATA. From this workshop, a proposal for a strategic roadmap emerged, followed by numerous community consultations conducted between 2022 and 2024. The resulting Strategic Community Roadmap outlines a pathway for Australia to transition from its fragmented landscape to a cohesive and dynamic FAIR Vocabulary Ecosystem. It presents a Vision, Mission, and 57 recommendations categorised into seven key topics, organised around four Strategic Themes. Each recommendation is prioritised by its importance and urgency for implementation. The goal is to promote wider adoption and greater community engagement with machine-actionable vocabularies, emphasising the social and technical support needed to address current data interoperability challenges. This serves as a call to action to maximise the societal, economic, and environmental benefits that can be derived from our national research and data initiatives.
Access status: Open Access ,
Family and domestic violence and gambling harm in NSW: developing the evidence-base
(Canberra, ACT: Australian National University, POLIS Centre for Indigenous Policy Research, 2025-08-29) Suomi, Aino; Perry, Jocelyn; Rehill, Patrick; Boxall, Hayley; Rees, Susan; Noble-Carr, Debbie; Cowlishaw, Sean
Substantial evidence now shows that family and domestic violence (FDV) and gambling harm are strongly related in help-seeking as well as general populations. This suggests that gambling treatment services have a need for resources to help identify and address FDV, while conversely, FDV services would benefit from programs aimed at identifying and managing co-occurring problems with gambling. In addition, geographical areas that have more gambling opportunities also have higher rates of gambling participation and harm and may potentially have higher levels of FDV. Any geographic association between gambling behaviours and gambling-related FDV will have significant policy relevance. These literature signal a pressing need for multi-level strategies to address co-occurring gambling and violent behaviours, which may involve limiting exposures to hazardous gambling products, as well as resourcing support services to respond to the co-occurring gambling harm and FDV at the community level. The current study aims to address this clearly identified gap in policy and practice that may be relevant to sectors operating at the intersection of gambling harms and FDV.
Access status: Open Access ,
A Fairer Tax and Welfare System for Australia
(Canberra, ACT: Australian National University, POLIS Centre for Indigenous Policy Research, 2025-07-25) Phillips, Ben
This research examines the Australian welfare system's inadequacies, particularly for JobSeeker and pension recipients, renters, single parents, and youth, who face high rates of poverty and financial stress. It proposes four budget-neutral reforms, primarily funded by reducing superannuation tax concessions or tightening means testing arrangements for the Age Pension and the Child Care Subsidy. These reforms could increase average household incomes by up to $3,800 annually for lower income households and reduce poverty rates by up to a third. The GST's regressive nature is highlighted, disproportionately impacting low-income households. The reforms target low income regions, enhancing equity while maintaining fiscal responsibility.
Access status: Open Access ,
A review of remote employment policy: Where are we, and how did we get here?
(Canberra, ACT: Australian National University, POLIS Centre for Indigenous Policy Research, 2025-08-01) Klein, Elise; Markham, Francis
Drawing on qualitative and quantitative data, this paper critically examines the trajectory and impacts of employment policies in remote Indigenous Australia. It first provides a snapshot of the current remote employment crisis. By tracing policy developments from historical contexts to current practices, including the compined impacts of trends in Indigenous affairs and mainstream social security policies, the paper identifies persistent challenges and potential avenues for substantive change. The analysis reveals that despite recent policy shifts, remote Indigenous communities continue to face structural employment barriers that are poorly addressed by governmental approaches that often do not align with community needs or aspirations. The paper argues for a reevaluation of policy frameworks, advocating for strategies that address the lack of employment options in remote communities, rather than assuming that providing training and pathways is sufficient in the absence of jobs. This review highlights the disconnect between stated policy intentions and outcomes and underscores the importance of community-led initiatives and Indigenous self-determination in shaping effective employment strategies.
Access status: Open Access ,
High Balance Superannuation Holders: A Statistical Overview
(Canberra, ACT: Australian National University, POLIS Centre for Indigenous Policy Research, 2025-06-27) Phillips, Ben; Webster, Richard
Access status: Open Access ,
Experiences of home ownership in a remote Indigenous community
(Canberra, ACT: Australian National University, POLIS Centre for Indigenous Policy Research, 2025-06-24) Terrill, Leon
In 2007, the Australian government introduced a program to encourage the uptake of home ownership in communities on Indigenous land. At the time the only community to take up the option was Wurrumiyanga on the Tiwi Islands in the Northern Territory. There have as a result been 16 grants of home ownership in the community and a further grant at a nearby outstation. This paper reports on the experience of homeowners under the program. That experience has been mixed. Participants identified a range of positive features, such as greater authority and control, but also a range of challenges and in some cases significant hardship. The experience of Wurrumiyanga demonstrates that remote home ownership is different to other contexts and that ongoing support is required. A key motivation for participants entering into home ownership was the hope that it would provide an opportunity to build wealth for themselves and their family. This occurs against a backdrop of considerable poverty and few accessible options for investment. There are, however, reasons to be concerned about the long-term financial impact of remote home ownership and its ability to perform this function of accumulating and transmitting wealth. There is a risk under current policy settings that participants will instead suffer financial loss. Where home ownership is offered in other remote communities, participants require clear advice on the policy framework and long-term prospects.
Access status: Open Access ,
Indigenous Employment 1981–2021
(Canberra, ACT: Australian National University, POLIS Centre for Indigenous Policy Research, 2025-06-05) Eva, Christian; Gray, Matthew; Hunter, Boyd; Leroy-Dyer, Sharlene
There is a significant body of research which attempts to quantify rates of Indigenous employment. However, previous estimates offer an often-inconsistent depiction across recent decades, with the specifications of analysis both by researchers and government changing, and the data environment developing. An oversight in previous estimations has been failing to analyse Indigenous employment in the context of the machinations of the broader labour market, such as the increase of women in the workforce, changing education rates, and age profiles of employment. This paper produces the largest scale estimation of Indigenous employment to date, across the period of 1981–2021, using nine iterations of 5-yearly Census data. This analysis reaffirms the associations between factors such as geography and education with rates of employment but highlights the significant extent to which the increase of Indigenous women in the workforce has contributed to the overall increase in Indigenous employment. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive view of the Indigenous labour market over a 40-year period in the context of the Australian labour market as a whole. Inevitably, the findings of this paper point to a lingering stagnation in employment in key areas, and the crucial need for more insightful and relevant data beyond the Census

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