Agricultural productivity, the electoral cycle and ENSO effects in Papua New Guinea

Abstract

Commentators have suggested that there is a link between agricultural productivity and elections in Papua New Guinea. On the face of it, this seems a plausible hypothesis; however, on closer examination, there is little supporting evidence for a link between agricultural output in export cash crops and PNG elections. What does appear to be true is that recent El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in Papua New Guinea have occurred around election years. It is these ENSO events and the droughts and floods that follow that have impacted on Papua New Guinea's agricultural productivity. The unfortunate coincidence of elections and agricultural stress could explain some of the civil unrest that occurs during PNG elections. Show more