Trust but Verify, An Exploration of Community Trust in the Australian Fire Danger Rating System

Abstract

Trust is a highly dynamic phenomenon and a vital component of hazard information dissemination, allowing communities to readily accept and act upon hazard information. This study investigates the factors that underlie community trust in the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS), determining the psychosocial mechanisms that influence individual perceptions of its accuracy. This study utilizes a mixed method approach, comprising a community survey and a focus group discussion, recruiting those within Canberra's Western Edge community. Through this, it was found that bushfire experience, self-efficacy, and trust in agency affects trust in the AFDRS. Results of this study show that at a community level, trust in the AFDRS is high. Furthermore, both trust in fire agencies and self-efficacy significantly influence trust in the system. Those with bushfire experience were more likely to use self-efficacy to verify their trust in the AFDRS. Conversely, those with less experience relied more heavily on the credibility of fire agencies to ascertain the technological accuracy of the system. Trust in agencies was found to be the primary determinant of community trust in the AFDRS. Therefore, this study demonstrates that trust in risk forecasting systems varies substantially across individuals, comprising an amalgamation of personal perceptions and relationships with institutions. This study concludes by outlining the merit of agency outreach programs in maintaining community trust in the AFDRS.