Coastal climate change on Anindilyakwa Sea Country: GIS mapping and modelling for internal capacity

Abstract

The management of Anindilyakwa Sea Country (ASC) and the complex impacts and futures therein requires robust strategies led by internal capacity. In recent years, economic directives have evolved, climate change impacts have emerged, and efforts to secure sovereignty have reemerged. The Anindilyakwa Land Council (ALC) has sought out partnerships and expertise to support its continued self-determination through these changes. The CRCNA grant “Integrating Indigenous Priorities in Spatially Enabled Planning of the Indigenous Estate” furthers these goals through existing partnerships and Geospatial Information System (GIS) analysis. This research develops the grant’s goals through GIS modelling of climate vulnerabilities on ASC. Coastal climate change vulnerabilities are defined by the intersection of physical hazards and local community values. Vulnerability in a remote, Indigenous context such as ASC, requires synthesis of cultural perspectives, colonial impacts, and internally defined future visioning. Because goals and outcomes cannot be prescribed, co-design and development is imperative. Moreover, these principles ensure that the outputs of this research are suitable for integration as working knowledge into ALC management and planning. After robust risk assessment, climate change contextualisation, and extensive consultation, three GIS analytical strategies were selected: a physical process model of sea level inundation, a multi-criteria risk analysis of erosion, and a participatory sketch mapping process. The design, development, and delivery of each was iteratively accomplished through a partnership between the ALC and the ANU. This collaboration led to publication of the outputs in the forthcoming Makarda Management Plan by the ALC Rangers (July, 2025). A principle-driven application of GIS allowed for synthesis of culturally relevant quantitative and qualitative datasets and story map publication enables dynamic engagement and community access for continued future use. The versatility and rigor of these tools facilitates a sharing of knowledges across Traditional and Western epistemologies. Analysis utilised sitespecific, high-resolution aerial imagery and LiDAR from Aerometrex (another CRCNA partner) which greatly enhanced the accuracy and efficacy of the modelling outputs. This research aims to create an effective working knowledge of GIS analyses, appropriately and rigorously situated within the Anindilyakwa context, of spatially explicit and locally derived datasets that are useful for internal local decision-making.